Elections - December 20, 2015

Spain   -   Politic, Economy and Welfare                     Amado Lorenzo

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The election of December 20, 2015 represents a change in the future strategy of the Kingdom of Spain’s governments.

Neither of the parties have obtained the necessary deputies, therefore the new government will need the votes of other parties or its abstentions. 

Contrary to previous elections, in addition to the two parties that have alternated in the government, two new parties have emerged.   

The third party is “Podemos” a coalition inspired by Stéphane Hessel´s protest !Indigne vous!,  whose leaders were young members of the Communist Party, now named “Izquierda Unida”.

The fourth party is "Ciudadanos", with many voters from " Unión, Progreso y Democracía" (UPD), who did not obtained any deputy this time, in spite of the fact that in its origins had the support of many writers and personalities of the Spanish society.

The original objectives of UPD and “Ciudadanos” were to fight the corruption of the Political Parties, Unions, Institutions and the secessionist attempts of some regional Political Parties. 

We should not forget the influence on the autonomous communities of the regional Political Parties, known as “nationalistas”, origin of many of the economic problems of the kingdom. 

The Spanish electoral system

Since the approval of the current constitution in 1978, the system to elect the deouties benefit the regional political parties. Our current system has a low democratic level, as the candidates, with few exceptions, are selected by the "party leaders" and the "closed lists" procedure only let the citizens to vote for the parties, instead of the candidates. That is why the great majority of deputies and senators are unknown by the citizens. This system (D`hondt´s law) only assign deputies to the parties that obtain a minimum of votes 3-5% and distributes the positions in accordance to the position of the candidates in the party list. There are compñains because some political parties only need 50,000 votes to obtain a deputy and others need 300,000 votes.
Citizens complain of the fact that they can not elect the candidates or the politicians. The president of the government is elected by the votes of the deputies. There has not been cases of "transfugismo" (when a deputy vote for the candidates of a different party), something that has happended during the elections of governors and majors.

Elections from 1978

Two parties, the “Partido Popular” (PP) - conservative - and the “Partido Socialista Obrero Español” (PSOE) – Social democracy - have been sharing the government of Spain, since Adolfo Suarez and his political party (UCD) disappeared when the PSOE won the election in 1981. Mr. Suarez was the president during the transition from a dictatorship to democracy (1976-1978 and 1979-1981). 

The PSOE has run Spain during two periods 1981-1996 and 2004-2011 with absolute majority or some votes of the regional Political Parties, usually CIU or PNV and the PP from  1996-2004 and 2012-2015.

Consequences perceived by citizens of the “two parties” system.

Recent surveys, indicate that mature voters (45+) continue voting to the same parties, corresponding to their religion, social position or their memories of the civil war, giving less importance to the efficiency and integrity of the candidates.

The impact of the 2007 economic crisis, that still affect us, is the reason why the young people (16-30) and adults (31-45) give more importance to combat the prevailing corruption in nearly all the environments, the Royal family, the Political Parties, the Governments, mainly in the Autonomous Communities, Town Halls and Unions.

Extreme left young people, who would like to be dictators as Chávez (Venezuela) or the Castro Brothers (Cuba), organised the coalition of Political Parties "Podemos",  promising an impossible welfare, as enjoyed before the 2007 crisis (When the politicians used subsidies and credits from the European Union) to “steal and distribute” funds that our grandchildren will have to pay.

Other groups of young people, created a political party under the logo of "Ciudadanos" to attract Catalans against the secessions from the Kingdom of Spain and to fight  the corruption than affects the current Political Parties.

“Podemos” and “Ciudadanos” have attracted those unhappy with the three parties  accused of corruption, PP, PSOE and CIU.

Distribution of the deputies in the new parliament

As no party has obtained sufficient deputies to elect a president, it will be necessary, as in previous occasions, that one or more parties vote for the candidate or abstain.

Alternatives

Mariano Rajoy could be appointed President if “Ciudadanos” vote him and the PSOE abstain and also Pedro Sanchez could be elected if “Podemos” give him their votes and “Ciudadanos”  abstain.

There is a possibility that the PSOE do the same that the PP during the Andalusian election,  delaying the election of the PSOE during several weeks and almost forced a new election.

There is  not any other alternative than wait for the result of the negotiations.

Consequences of the participation of “Podemos” and “Ciudadanos” in the political game.

There is a perception among young people (16-30)  and adults (31-45) that voting to one of these two parties will force the PP and the PSOE to control the corruption and to implement more efficient economic and strategic measures with the following objectives:

1.- Negotiate with the leaders of the European Union a better distribution of  jobs with higher salaries to reduce the heavy load of countries with an unemployment over 25+% and 50+% of young people. 

The current German hegemony of the UE that some already named the “IV Reich”, controls the majority of I+D investments and the production with greater value added that creates the best jobs.

This requires a high level strategy, especially  after  the Greek government failure to negotiate  and the invasion  of one million immigrants  from Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, the Magreb and southern Africa, because the countries giving them residential status will opposed the transfer of jobs to Spain and other countries of the second and third categories.

2. - To implement effective measures against corruption, something that is not perceived now.

3. – Young people hesitate between their feelings of solidarity with the immigrants, well covered by the media, and their desire to fight the “mafias” and terrorist groups that created the immigrants invasion, providing them with a profit estimated in more than five billion Euros.

Terrorists Groups and “Mafias” obtain new ways to finance their activities with the “Immigrants and workers traffic”, prostitution and the sale of counterfeit products (including audio-visual products) affecting the young people of the countries as Spain who do not find employment except “low salaries” jobs. 

If in addition they can not migrate to countries where there are jobs with better salaries, because the new immigrants using the emblem of "refugees" accept any salaries, the situation will get worse and might elect to vote “extreme right” Political Parties as it is already happening in France, The Netherlands and other countries or vote extreme left Political Parties.

Why have the PP and PSOE lost their hegemony? 

Young people (16-30) and adults (31-45) perceive that the two parties are responsible of the major problems affecting them.

1. - Lack of employment

In spite of their promises the PP was not able to increase the employment that was reduced from 18.153.000 in 2011 to 18.049.000 in 2015.   

The salaries of new jobs are 25–50% lower than before the crisis and there are not any sign of improvement in the near future.

The announcements of incentives to the immigrants and their employers will affect even more those unemployed and the young people incorporated to the job market, who will have more difficulties to find jobs in Spain or emigrate to countries as Germany, France or the United Kingdom .

2. – Corruption continues due to lack of effective  controls. Nobody believes that the sister of the king, his husband, the family of Pujol (all),  Vice-president Rato, the ex treasurer of the PP, the ex presidents of Andalusia, Catalonia and others will be jailed. 

3. - The European Union does not seem willing to reduce the share of Germany, France, the UK or Sweden in jobs with “higher valued added” in favour of other countries as Spain. If we do not obtain a better share of production, research and development and fiscal benefits, there will not be any  improvement in employment in our kingdom.

4. - The Debt, both the country and the CCAA increases, due to the lack of a political will to reduce waste and inefficiency. Without an strict budget control and a reduction of useless expenses we will not be able to reduced the debt, which is necessary to increase “JOB CREATION INVESTMENTS”.

  

WE SHOULD PRAY ALL GODS TO ILLUMINATE THE POLITICIANS THAT WILL BE ELECTED